AVAFX Market Analysis

My Current resting order buy stop order :

The pending buy stop wasn’t triggered, so it was canceled. Now during the U.S. session, my idea about the the potential price direction changed.

New idea expressed:

Neither trade was triggered today. Let’s see what tomorrow brings. No need to keep looking for a trade for trading sake.

Here on the west coast of the good ol’  U.S. of A, I am waiting for our Frankfurt and London counter parts to get going. With that another profitable trading week will begin. At the moment, we are about 10 minutes from the Frankfurt open. Our main trading pair, the Pound/Dollar looks like it has an upside bias. It has broken resistance at the 1.5390 area. And has broken further resistance at the 1.5466 area. Everything appears to be shaping up to go long. With that said, as a trader I now implement my chosen strategy that will express my opinion. It may be right or it may be wrong. You know my m.o., just trade what you see and in the end, if your chosen method of expression has proven itself. You would have joined the ranks of the ever elusive 5% of consistently profitable traders.

May the pips be at your back – PowerTrader

Below are the trades for today:

Update: And yes we had another winning session. Currently we are up a respectable 3.32% from the inception of our new FXPOWER FUND account. This account began trading on 3/22/10 using our $$$$ Collector strategy.

(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
4/06/2010 – EUR/USD – Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has once again tentatively broken down below a countertrend bullish retracement and the key 1.3400 support/resistance level in its bid potentially to continue the strong downtrend that has been in place since the early December high. Since that high, this currency pair has been characterized by short-term bullish retracements and consolidations followed by substantial breakdowns in the direction of the overall downtrend. The most recent breakdown occurred just today (4/06/2010) as a steep short-term parallel channel that reached a high near 1.3600 has been broken strongly to the downside. With continued bearish momentum off this channel breakdown and the tentative breach of the key 1.3400 level, the next downside support target resides around the 1.3266 level, which represents the 10-month low hit in late March. A further breakdown below that level would confirm an overall downtrend continuation and potentially target further downside support in the 1.3100 price region.

1- Having a methodology that has been tested to have a positive expectancy.

2- And applying the chosen method consistantly.

For example, at the end of last week we ended the week down 4% . And now staying consistent to our proven trading method we are up 1.97%. In the end what matters is how we end the year. So we will keep chugging along here. racking up pips along the way.

Dollar Edges Higher on Strong NFPs through Thin Liquidity, Expect a True Reaction Monday

I happen to admire George Soros quite a bit. The poor guy gets a lot of flack from many who think he doesn’t deserve the credit and admiration that has been bestowed upon him.  Yeah I know that Jim Rogers had a hand in the success of the Quantum fund for the 10 years he was there. But you have got to admit, for an immigrant who narrowly escaped his native Hungary to accomplish what he has, is absolutely a triumph in my book. Anyway here is a fantastic article that i hope you enjoy. It is from globalguru.com

George Soros’s #1 Investment Secret Revealed

George Soros — alongside Warren Buffett — is considered to be one of the greatest investors of all time. In 1994, George Soros wrote a book about his investment philosophy called the The Alchemy of Finance in which he proposes his “Theory of Reflexivity.” Soros gave his theory such a grand-sounding name so that it would sound like Einstein’s “General Theory Of Relativity.” Soros thought it would be that important.

I read it once… I didn’t get it…
I read it again…I still didn’t get it…
Now, keep in mind that I had been through Harvard Law School…
…So I was used to stirring concrete with my eyelashes…
…And getting through more turgid and bombastic doublespeak than you could shake a stick at…
But Soros made federal court cases seem like nursery rhymes.
Then one day I ran across a quote from Soros’s own son. It made everything crystal clear, but not in the way that I expected.
“My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that. But I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking, Jesus Christ, at least half of this is bulls**t, I mean, you know the reason he changes his position in the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him. It has nothing to do with reason. He literally goes into a spasm, and it’s his early warning sign.”

Soros himself essentially went on to criticize his own theory in the next edition of the book — admitting that it was essentially incomprehensible. Those who had claimed to have understood it in the first place were just fooling themselves.

So if no one has a theory to explain the market — not even George Soros — what chance do you have to make money consistently in the markets? It turns out there is a secret to George Soros’s success. But it’s not one that you will find in books that discuss Soros’s investment philosophy — and certainly not in The Alchemy of Finance. But once you understand and apply this secret, it will make your trading life much easier — and certainly less stressful.
The “secret” to Soros’s success is not the ability of the “Theory of Reflexivity” to explain or predict the market. In fact, the secret to Soros’s success is quite the opposite. I found it buried in an interview with Soros in John Train’s The New Money Masters, in what was almost a throwaway comment:

Now I could get into how this all has to do with Soros’s admiration for the philosopher Karl Popper and the limits of human understanding, but there is no room for that here. Comments from traders who have worked with Soros are more relevant.
From James Marquez, a former Soros Chief Investment Officer (CIO):
“Soros would be the first one to tell you that sometimes his actions… look like the most rookie, odd-lot, wrong-way kind of thing, selling at the lows, and buying at the highs. But it’s much easier to understand in light of his avowed mission: to be able to come and fight another day. He says: “I don’t want to wake up broke.”
And then, Alan Raphael, yet another Soros CIO:
“When George is wrong, he gets the hell out. He doesn’t say, ‘I’m right, they’re wrong.’ He says, ‘I’m wrong,’ and he gets out, because if you have a bad position on, it eats you away. All you do is think about it — at night, at your home. It consumes you. Your eye is off the ball completely. This is a tough business. If it were easy, meter maids would be doing it.”
Contrast that with how most of us think of trading or investing:

• We develop an opinion on a stock.
• We take a position.
• We convince ourselves that we made the right decision. This is when a bad investment turns into a “long-term investment.”
• And the “smarter” we are, the worse it is. We “know” we’re right. We “know” our investments will eventually “come back.”

Now, let’s examine how Soros would look at the same situation. Here’s my take on what Soros believes.
“The secret to my success is that I know that I will be wrong. I consider it a strength to admit my mistakes. That allows me to stay in the game and fight another day.”

So how can you apply this approach in your own trading and investing? Understand that making money in the markets has much more to do with having proper exits and position-sizing (bet size) than it does the “Theory of Reflexivity” or any other hypothesis that claims to explain the market.
So the next time you come across a “can’t fail” investment idea, here’s what you should do:

• Listen carefully and see if it “makes sense” to you.
• If it reflects your own beliefs, then consider taking a position in it.
• But no matter how terrific sounding the pick, make sure that you have your exits and position-sizing strategies in place.

If the position goes against you — which some inevitably will — reframe in your mind the idea that taking a loss is a strength. Make sure you cut your losses. And like George Soros, this will keep you from “waking up broke.”